Gartner, kambani yeruzivo rwekutsvagisa nekuongorora tekinoroji, yakataura kuti muna 2024, vagadziri vemotokari vacharamba vachishanda nesimba kuti vatarise shanduko dzakaunzwa nesoftware nemagetsi, nekudaro vachiunza nhanho nyowani yemotokari dzemagetsi.
Mafuta nemagetsi zvakawanikwa mutengo wakaenzana nekukurumidza kupfuura zvaitarisirwa
Mari yebhatiri iri kudonha, asi mari yekugadzira mota yemagetsi inodonha nekukurumidza nekuda kwehunyanzvi hwekuita senge gigacasting.Nekuda kweizvozvo, Gartner anotarisira kuti panosvika 2027 mota dzemagetsi dzichange dzisisina kudhura kugadzira kupfuura mukati memoto injini dzemoto nekuda kwehunyanzvi hwekugadzira matekinoroji uye kuderera kwebhatiri mutengo.
Panyaya iyi, Pedro Pacheco, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wekutsvagisa kuGartner, akati: “MaOEM matsva anotarisira kutsanangura patsva mamiriro eindasitiri yemotokari.Vanounza matekinoroji ehunyanzvi anorerutsa mitengo yekugadzira, senge yepakati mota yekuvaka kana yakasanganiswa die-casting, iyo inobatsira kudzikisa mutengo wekugadzira.mutengo uye nguva yegungano, vagadziri vemotokari havana sarudzo kunze kwekutora hunyanzvi uhu kuti vararame. ”
"Tesla nevamwe vakatarisa kugadzira nenzira nyowani," Pacheco akaudza Automotive News Europe kusati kwaburitswa.
Imwe yeanonyanya kuzivikanwa magadzirirwo aTesla ndeye "yakabatanidzwa kufa-kukanda," iyo inoreva kufa-kukanda yakawanda yemotokari muchidimbu chimwe chete, pane kushandisa akawanda emapoinzi ewelding nemanamira.Pacheco nedzimwe nyanzvi dzinotenda Tesla mutungamiri wekuvandudza mukucheka mutengo wegungano uye piyona mukubatanidza kufa-kukanda.
Kutorwa kwemotokari dzemagetsi kwadzikira mune mamwe misika mikuru, kusanganisira United States neEurope, saka nyanzvi dzinoti zvakakosha kuti vanogadzira mota vaunze mhando dzemutengo wakaderera.
Pacheco yakataura kuti yakasanganiswa die-casting tekinoroji chete inogona kuderedza mutengo wemuviri muchena ne "zvishoma" 20%, uye kumwe kudzikiswa kwemutengo kunogona kuwanikwa kuburikidza nekushandisa bhatiri mapaketi sezvinhu zvimiro.
Mari yebhatiri yave ichiderera kwemakore, akadaro, asi kudonha kwemitengo yegungano yaive "chinhu chisingatarisirwe" chinounza mota dzemagetsi pamutengo wakaenzana nemotokari dzemoto dzemukati nekukurumidza kupfuura zvakafungwa."Tiri kusvika padanho iri nekukurumidza kupfuura zvanga zvichitarisirwa," akawedzera.
Kunyanya, yakazvipira EV chikuva chaizopa automaker rusununguko rwekugadzira mitsetse yegungano kuti ienderane nehunhu hwavo, kusanganisira madiki emagetsi uye flat bhatiri pasi.
Kusiyana neizvi, mapuratifomu akakodzera "multi-powertrains" ane zvimwe zvisingakwanisi, sezvo achida nzvimbo yekugara tangi yemafuta kana injini / kutapurirana.
Kunyange izvi zvichireva kuti mota dzemagetsi ebhatiri dzichawana mutengo wakaenzana nemotokari dzemoto dzemukati nekukurumidza kupfuura zvaitarisirwa pakutanga, zvichawedzera zvakanyanya mutengo weimwe gadziriso yebhatiri mota dzemagetsi.
Gartner anofanotaura kuti panosvika 2027, avhareji mutengo wekugadzirisa tsaona dzakakomba dzinosanganisira mitumbi yemotokari yemagetsi uye mabhatiri ichawedzera ne30%.Nokudaro, varidzi vanogona kunge vachida kusarudza kuputsa motokari yemagetsi yakaparara sezvo mari yekugadzirisa inogona kunge yakakwirira kudarika kukosha kwayo.Saizvozvo, nekuti kugadzirisa kudhumhana kunodhura, mari dzeinishuwarenzi dzemotokari dzinogonawo kunge dzakakwira, zvichitokonzera kuti makambani einishuwarenzi arambe kubhadharirwa mamwe mamodeli.
Kukurumidza kudzikisa mutengo wekugadzira maBEV hakufanire kuuya nemutengo wepamusoro wekugadzirisa, nekuti izvi zvinogona kukonzera kudzoreredza kwevatengi mukufamba kwenguva.Nzira nyowani dzekugadzira mota dzemagetsi zvizere dzinofanirwa kuisirwa pamwe chete nematanho anovimbisa kuderera kwekugadzirisa mutengo.
Misika yemotokari yemagetsi inopinda mu "kupona kweiyo fittest" nhanho
Pacheco akati kana uye apo mari yekuchengetedza kubva kumotokari yemagetsi inoshandura mumitengo yakaderera yekutengesa inobva kune mugadziri, asi mutengo wepakati wemotokari dzemagetsi uye mukati memoto injini dzinopisa dzinofanira kusvika pachiyero ne 2027. Asi zvakare akataura kuti makambani emotokari yemagetsi akadai se BYD naTesla vane kugona kudzikisa mitengo nekuti mitengo yavo yakadzikira zvakakwana, saka kuderedzwa kwemitengo hakuzokonzerese kukuvadza kwakanyanya kune yavo purofiti.
Mukuwedzera, Gartner achiri kufanotaura kukura kwakasimba mukutengesa motokari yemagetsi, nehafu yemotokari inotengeswa muna 2030 iri motokari dzemagetsi dzakachena.Asi kana tichienzanisa ne "goridhe rush" yevagadziri vemagetsi ekutanga, musika uri kupinda munguva ye "kupona kwezvakanyanya".
Pacheco akarondedzera 2024 segore reshanduko kumusika wemotokari dzemagetsi dzeEuropean, nemakambani eChinese akadai seBYD neMG vachivaka yavo yekutengesa network uye mitsara munharaunda, nepo vagadziri vemotokari vakaita seRenault neStellantis vachizovhura mamodheru akaderera munharaunda.
"Zvinhu zvakawanda zviri kuitika izvozvi zvinogona kunge zvisiri kukanganisa kutengesa, asi vari kugadzirira zvinhu zvikuru," akadaro.
Zvichakadaro, akawanda emhando yepamusoro mota dzemagetsi ekutanga zvakanetsa mukati megore rapfuura, kusanganisira Polestar, iyo yakaona mutengo wayo wekugova uchidonha zvakanyanya kubva pakunyorwa kwayo, uye Lucid, iyo yakacheka yayo 2024 kugadzirwa kwekufanotaura ne90%.Mamwe makambani ari kunetseka anosanganisira Fisker, ari muhurukuro neNissan, uye Gaohe, iyo ichangobva kuoneswa kuvharwa kwekugadzira.
Pacheco akati, "Kareko, vazhinji vanotanga vakaungana mumunda wemotokari yemagetsi vachitenda kuti vaigona kuita purofiti iri nyore - kubva kune vanogadzira mota kuenda kumakambani emagetsi ekuchaja mota - uye vamwe vavo vachiri kuvimba zvakanyanya nemari yekunze, izvo zvakavaita kunyanya. panjodzi pamusika.Kukanganisa kwematambudziko. "
Gartner anofanotaura kuti panosvika 2027, 15% yemakambani emotokari dzemagetsi akatangwa mumakore gumi apfuura achatorwa kana kubhuroka, kunyanya ayo anovimba zvakanyanya nekudyara kwekunze kuti aenderere mberi nekushanda.Nekudaro, "Izvi hazvireve kuti indasitiri yemotokari yemagetsi iri kudzikira, inongopinda padanho idzva apo makambani ane zvigadzirwa zvemhando yepamusoro uye masevhisi achakunda mamwe makambani."Pacheco akadaro.
Pamusoro pezvo, akataurawo kuti "nyika zhinji dziri kurega kurudziro dzine chekuita nemotokari dzemagetsi, zvichiita kuti musika uomerwe nevatambi varipo."Nekudaro, "tiri kupinda muchikamu chitsva chekuti mota dzeMagetsi hadzigone kutengeswa pane zvinokurudzira / zvibvumirano kana mabhenefiti ezvakatipoteredza.MaBEV anofanirwa kunge ari chigadzirwa chepamusoro-soro kana chichienzaniswa nemotokari dzeinjini dzinopisa. "
Ipo musika weEV uchibatanidza, kutumira uye kupinda kucharamba kuchikura.Gartner anofanotaura kuti kutakurwa kwemotokari yemagetsi kuchasvika mamirioni gumi nemasere nemazana mana muna 2024 uye mamirioni makumi maviri nemazana matanhatu muna2025.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-20-2024